OSCARS 2012: My picks

Every year, I watch (or at least try to watch) the Oscars live.
For the second time, I’m in the Netherlands when they take place so I can’t watch it on TV. I’ll try online to see if I’m right about my bets.
See my bets below:

Best actress in a supporting role

Nominees:

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

I only saw two of three of the actresses mentioned. Bérénice Bejo is in a leading role. So it’s a bit unfair to have nominated in this category. I absolutely loved her performance. In a silent movie expression is everything, and she has it all. And she dances wonderfully. It was also wonderful to see Jessica Chastain in the opposite pole from her performance in The tree of life. But it’s a bit of a goofy character and I would say that the academy is reluctant in awarding that.
Octavia Spencer only has a chance if the oscar for the actress in a leading role would go for Viola Davis. Not sure what will happen there.

My pick: Bérénice Bejo

Best actor in a supporting role

Nominees:

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Not a lot of information here. I’ve seen two and a half performances. From what I saw, Christopher Plummer is the best. But I have only seen a bit of “Extremely loud...” where Max von Sydow appears.
I haven’t seen Kenneth Branagah nor Nick Nolte. Kenneth Branagah is always a safe choice. But Holywood loves a comeback so Nick Nolte might have a shot. On the other hand, he’s a bit anti-establishment and the academy is revengeful
Jonah Hill is great but there is a trail for the Oscar. This year he’ll only get the nod.

My pick: Kenneth Branagah

Best actress in a leading role

Nominees:

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

I haven’t seen Glenn Close’s performance so I might be really off here. Form the ones I’ve seen, I would say it’s a good tie between Meryl and Viola. But it’s unfair for Meryl. First, she’s portraying someone so it’s always more difficult because we have a term for comparison. Viola Davis just has to be intense in whatever style she wants. Besides, the academy always puts the bar higher for Meryl. She has like 13 or 14 nominations and “only” two wins. To give the third oscar is something huge. It’s totally deserved but the academy is always expecting more from her.
But in any case...
My pick: Meryl Streep

Best actor in a leading role

Nominees:

Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Only saw three of them. Too bad i haven’t seen Gary Oldman. I want to. He’s one of my favorite actors (some other favorites by the way: Sean Penn, Daniel Day Lewis, Tim Roth...)
From what I saw, Jean Dujardin would be the fair choice. Clooney is really well in this one but two oscars given to such a good looking guy is too much. Brad Pitt is wonderful in general but not spectacularly here. And he also suffers from Clooney’s disease.

My pick: Jean Dujardin

Best director

Nominees:

Michel Hazavanicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

It would be really strange to give Martin Scorcese an Oscar for something so far from his style especially given that i can count at least three times when he should have been given an Oscar and didn’t get it.
I love Terrence Malick’s direction. But a lot of the good vibes coming from the tree of life comes from the cinematography and editing.
Michel Hazavanicius also has a shot. But it’s very hard to imagine how the academy is going to react to The artist.

My pick: Michel Hazavanicius

Best original Screenplay

Nominees:

The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Don’t know enough here. The Artist doesn’t deserve it. And I haven’t seen the rest.
A Separation will win for best foreign movie so I wouldn’t bet on that one here.

My pick: Midnight in Paris

Best adapted screenplay

Nominees:

The Descendants
Hugo
Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

My pick: Hugo

Best foreign language film

Nominees:

Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation

My pick: A separation

Best picture

Nominees:

War Horse
The Artist
Moneyball
The Descendants
The Tree of Life
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Hugo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

I haven’t seen War Horse, Midnight in Paris and Hugo. Midnight in Paris doesn’t have a good shot.
From the 5,5 that I’ve saw, The artist is the best one. But, as I said, it’s really hard to know how the academy is going to react to The Artist. From the others, I would say The Help has the best chance. And it is indeed a great movie. A good mixture of comedy and drama as is common to see in Best Picture Oscar winners. But I’m putting all my eggs in the Artist basket.

My pick: The Artist

Art direction

Nominees:

The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

My pick: Hugo

Cinematography

Nominees:

The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

The tree of life was received with both great and awful reviews. But in one thing people agree. It’s a great cinematography.

My pick: The tree of life

Film editing

Nominees:

The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

My pick: Hugo

Visual effects

Nominees:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

I haven’t seen none. But I think the Rise of the Planet Apes has good chances here. But if Hugo doesn’t win any of the most important oscars it will win this one.

Make up

Nominees:

Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
The Iron Lady

My pick: the Iron Lady